The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has taken another key step towards securing a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha after independent candidate Parimal Nathwani, backed by the alliance, won one of the two Rajya Sabha seats in Jharkhand on Thursday. Nathwani's victory is politically significant not just because it came amid allegations of cross-voting within the ruling INDIA bloc in Jharkhand, but also because it strengthens the NDA's position in the Upper House at a time when several key constitutional reforms are expected to dominate the national political discourse.
With Nathwani's win, the NDA's strength in the Rajya Sabha has risen to 152 members, bringing the ruling coalition closer to the crucial two-thirds mark required for passing constitutional amendment bills. The development comes against the backdrop of a series of political realignments, defections and mergers across opposition parties, which have gradually altered the arithmetic in Parliament.
Why the Rajya Sabha numbers matter
Unlike ordinary legislation, constitutional amendment bills require a special majority in both Houses of Parliament. Such bills need the support of at least two-thirds of members present and voting, while also requiring a majority of the total membership of the House. The importance of this threshold has grown as discussions around the implementation of women's reservation and the future delimitation of parliamentary constituencies gather momentum. Any constitutional amendment required for these measures would need strong support in the Rajya Sabha, where governments often face greater challenges than in the Lok Sabha.
NDA inches towards the magic number
Following Nathwani's victory, the NDA's tally stands at 152 in the Upper House. However, the effective strength of the Rajya Sabha is currently 241 because four seats from West Bengal are vacant following the resignations of Trinamool Congress (TMC) MPs Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, Sushmita Dev, Prakash Chik Baraik, and Koel Mallick. The BJP is expected to win all four vacant seats from West Bengal, which would increase the NDA's strength to 156.
For a constitutional amendment to comfortably pass, the ruling coalition would need the support of at least 164 members in the Rajya Sabha. This means the NDA remains just eight members short of the target even after accounting for the likely gains from West Bengal.
Current NDA Strength in Rajya Sabha
The NDA's tally of 152 comprises:
- BJP: 114
- TDP: 04
- JD(U): 04
- AIADMK: 04
- NCP: 04
- Shiv Sena: 02
- AGP: 01
- RLM: 01
- PMK: 01
- RPI(A): 01
- JSP: 01
- NPP: 01
- RLD: 01
- Nominated Members: 7
- Independents: 3
- UPPL: 02 (Outside support)
- ZPM: 01 (Outside support)
The UPPL and ZPM are considered outside supporters but broadly back the NDA on key issues.
INDIA bloc continues to lag behind
The INDIA bloc currently has 63 members in the Rajya Sabha.
Its strength includes:
- Congress: 30
- Trinamool Congress: 09
- Samajwadi Party: 04
- CPM: 03
- JMM: 03
- JKNC: 03
- RJD: 03
- CPI: 02
- IUML: 02
- KCM: 01
- NCP (Sharad Pawar): 01
- Shiv Sena (UBT): 01
- Independnet: 01
While the opposition alliance remains influential, its numbers are significantly lower than those of the NDA, limiting its ability to block legislation unless it secures support from non-aligned regional parties.
The role of regional parties could be decisive
The most interesting aspect of the current Rajya Sabha arithmetic is the growing importance of regional parties that are neither formally aligned with the NDA nor the INDIA bloc. The "Others" category currently consists of 26 members:
- DMK: 08
- BJD: 05
- YSRCP: 04
- AAP: 03
- BRS: 03
- BSP: 01
- MNM: 01
- DMDK: 01
Among them, the YSR Congress Party has emerged as a crucial factor.
YSRCP support could change the equation
The YSRCP has consistently extended issue-based support to the Narendra Modi government on several important legislative matters, including the Delimitation Bill. If the party's four Rajya Sabha members continue to support the government, the NDA's effective strength would rise to at least 160 members. That would leave the ruling alliance just four votes short of the two-thirds threshold, which makes support from a handful of additional regional parties sufficient to push key constitutional amendments through the Upper House.
Rajya Sabha advantage, Lok Sabha challenge
While the NDA's position in the Rajya Sabha continues to strengthen, the situation in the Lok Sabha remains very different. For a constitutional amendment, the government would need the support of at least 360 members in the current 540-member Lok Sabha (three seats are vacant). Despite gains through defections and shifting political loyalties, the NDA remains well short of that figure. This means that although the ruling alliance is steadily improving its position in the Upper House, it will still require broader political consensus and support from other parties if it intends to pursue major constitutional reforms.
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