Assembly Election Opinion Poll: Mamata ahead of BJP in Bengal, close fight in TN, Kerala, predicts Matrize

As per the Matrize Opinion poll, the TMC is likely to get 43% of votes in Bengal, while the BJP may receive 41% of votes in the state. The Others are likely to get 16% of the votes. The upcoming West Bengal Assembly elections is set to witness a high-stakes contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The latest survey by Matrize for the upcoming West Bengal Assembly elections points to a fiercely competitive race between the state's two principal rivals. The TMC is projected to win between 140-160 seats, while the BJP is estimated to secure 130-150 seats, indicating a tight electoral battle. Other parties and independents are likely to collectively get around 8 to 16 seats.

West Bengal Assembly: 294 seats

• TMC: 140-160
• BJP: 130-150
• Others: 08-16

Malabar: 48

• UDF: 25-27
• LDF: 20-22
• NDA: 00-02

South Kerala: 48

• LDF: 23-26
• UDF: 20-23
• NDA: 01-03
• Others: 00-02

According to the latest projections by Matrize for the Kerala Assembly elections, the UDF is expected to hold a slight advantage in the vote-share race with an estimated 42 per cent. The ruling LDF is projected to receive around 39 per cent of the votes, indicating a closely contested poll. Meanwhile, the BJP-led NDA is likely to secure nearly 15% of the vote share in the state. 

The latest survey by Matrize for the upcoming Kerala Assembly elections indicates a closely fought contest between the two major fronts. The LDF is projected to win between 62 and 68 seats, while the UDF is estimated to secure 67 to 73 seats suggesting a neck-and-neck battle. The BJP+ likely to get 5 to 8 seats, whereas other smaller parties are expected to win between 0 and 3 seats.

South Tamil Nadu: 51 seats

• AIADMK+: 24-26
• DMK+: 22-24
• TVK: 00-02
• Others: 00-02

Cauvery Delta: 47 seats

• AIADMK+: 22-25
• DMK+: 21-24
• TVK: 01-03
• Others: 00-01

Chennai: 37 seats

• DMK+: 16-19
• AIADMK+: 12-15
• TVK: 04-07
• Others: 00-01

The NDA in Tamil Nadu includes the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam (AMMK), the Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK), the South Indian Forward Bloc (SIFB), the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), the Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK), the Puratchi Bharatham Katchi (PBK), and the Puthiya Needhi Katchi (PNK).

The DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu includes the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the Congress, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) and others.

According to the latest projections by Matrize, the vote-share scenario in Tamil Nadu appears closely contested, with the AIADMK+ alliance placed slightly ahead at 40%. The DMK+ bloc follows closely with 38%, indicating an intense two-way competition. Meanwhile, the emerging TVK continues to make its presence felt with an estimated 16% of the vote share as per the opinion poll.

According to the latest opinion poll released by Matrize for the Assam Assembly Elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to get a majority in the state. The survey suggests that the alliance is likely to win between 92 and 102 seats.

Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll 

• NDA: 107-120
• DMK+: 102-115
• TVK: 05-12
• Others: 01-06

Barak Valley: 13 seats

• NDA: 10-12
• Congress+: 02-04
• Others: 01-02

North and Central Assam: 38 seats

• NDA: 27-29
• Congress+: 04-06
• Others: 00-01

Upper Assam: 27 seats

• NDA: 21-23
• Congress+: 05-07

Lower Assam: 33 seats

• NDA: 22-24 
• Congress+: 07-09

Bodoland: 15 seats

• NDA: 10-12
• Congress+: 00-02
• Others: 02-04

According to the latest projections by Matrize, the BJP-led NDA is expected to secure around 46% of the total vote share in Assamn placing the alliance in a favourable position ahead of the Assembly elections. The survey estimates that the Congress-led alliance may garner approximately 36% of the votes. Other parties together are projected to receive nearly 18% of the vote share.

According to the latest opinion poll released by Matrize for the Assam Assembly Elections, the NDA is projected to secure a strong comeback in the state. The survey suggests that the alliance may win between 92 and 102 seats, indicating a decisive lead over its competitors. In contrast, the Congress-led coalition is expected to finish behind, with an estimated 22 to 32 seats. 

Assam Opinion Poll 

BJP: 92-102
Congress: 22-32
Others: 04-07

The Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Kerala on April 9 to elect all 140 members of the state Legislative Assembly. The votes will be counted and the results will be declared on May 4.

Here's the list of key constituencies in the state: 

• Dharmadam
• Paravur
• Mattannur
• Manjeshwaram
• Kasaragod
• Nemom
• Thiruvananthapuram
• Kazhakootam   
• Vattiyoorkavu   
• Attingal
• Chathannoor  
• Kottayam         
• Malampuzha 
• Palakkad         
• Thalassery      
• Manalur
• Thrissur
• Nattika 
• Ollur
• Kayamkulam 
• Alappuzha      
• Haripad
• Varkala 
• Kattakkada     
• Neyyattinkara

The Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu on April 23 to elect all 234 members of the state Legislative Assembly. The votes will be counted and the results will be declared on May 4.

Here's the list of key constituencies in the state: 

• Kolathur
• Edappadi
• Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni
• Bodinayakanur
• Katpadi
• Coimbatore South
• Thiruvannamalai
• Thousand Lights
• Vellore
• Pennagaram   
• Dharmapuri
• Tirunelveli       
• Kanniyakumari
• Nagercoil
• Kovilpatti
• Thoothukkudi
• Ramanathapuram
• Virudhunagar
• Thiruparankundram
• Sivaganga
• Dr Radhakrishnan Nagar   
• Mylapore         
• Thiyagaraya Nagar   
• Velachery
• Harbour

The Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in West Bengal on April 23 and 29 to elect all 294 members of the state Legislative Assembly. The votes will be counted and the results will be declared on May 4.

Here's a list of key constituencies in the state: 

• Bhabanipur
• Nandigram
• Dinhata
• Asansol Uttar
• Behala Paschim          
• Bidhannagar     
• Haldia
• Balurghat           
• Jadavpur
• Tollygunge       
• Natabari          
• Madarihat       
• Kalimpong      
• Darjeeling       
• Raiganj 
• English Bazar 
• Baisnabnagar
• Murshidabad 
• Bharatpur        
• Bhatpara
• Baranagar       
• Dum Dum
• Baruipur Paschim
• Moyna  
• Jhargram

The Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Assam on April 9 to elect 126 members of the Assam Legislative Assembly. The votes will be counted and the results will be declared on May 4.

Here are some key constituencies of the state. 

• Jalukbari
• Majuli
• Dispur
• Titabar
• Nazira     
• Sibsagar 
• Dhemaji
• Dibrugarh
• Tinsukia
• Panery  
• Bokakhat
• Samaguri
• Kaliabor
• Nowgong
• Patacharkuchi
• Barpeta
• Karimganj North
• Patharkandi
• Ratabari
• Hailakandi
• Silchar  
• Dholai
• Bokajan
• Diphu
• Dhubri  
• Kokrajhar West
• Sidli
• Bongaigaon
• Goalpara East
• Palasbari
• Gauhati East  
• Gauhati West 
• Tamulpur        
• Dharmapur     
• Chapaguri
• Mangaldoi
• Udalguri
• Tezpur  
• Behali   
• Golaghat     

The North Eastern state of Assam will go for polls in a single phase on April 9, the counting of votes will take place on May 4. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), United People's Party Liberal (UPPL), Bodoland People's Front (BPF) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) are the main parties in the state. 

Puducherry's 30 constituencies for the 16th Legislative Assembly feature Congress allied with DMK and CPI against a opposition bloc of All India NR Congress, BJP, and AIADMK. To ensure free and fair elections, ECI has deployed Central Observers under Article 324 of the Constitution and Section 20B of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, for efficient oversight at the field level.

The assembly election in Tamil Nadu will be held in a single phase on April 23, the result will be announced on May 4. Tamil Nadu's 234 assembly seats are heating up as political parties ramp up campaigns within their alliances. The key political parties in Tamil Nadu are dominated by the Dravidian majors—the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Emerging forces include Actor Vijay’s Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), while the BJP, Congress, PMK, and MDDK also play significant roles in the state's coalition-driven landscape.

Kerala's 140-seat contest pits the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) against the United Democratic Front (UDF), with the BJP-led NDA entering aggressively by planning to field candidates in around 100 seats, while allies like Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) and Twenty20 cover the rest.

West Bengal will go for polls in two phases on April 23 and 29, with the results will be announced on May 4. The state's 294-seat assembly will see a fierce battle between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee since 2011, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In Assam, the BJP-led NDA government faces off against Congress for all 126 seats.