Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in China on Saturday for his first visit to the country after seven years. In China's Tianjin, he will participate in the two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit. Apart from this, he met Chinese President Xi Jinping and will also be meeting Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
The Prime Minister's visit is crucial as it comes at a time when New Delhi is facing constant pressure from the United States (US) for buying Russian crude. The Trump administration has also imposed 50 per cent tariffs on India for this and has been constantly criticising New Delhi for 'fueling' the war in Ukraine that began in February 2022.
However, the move doesn't seem to work for the US, as India has vowed to protect its national interests at all costs. Besides, the move to impose 50 per cent tariffs seems to have pushed India and China closer, with the latter also criticising the US for its recent trade policies. With India and China improving ties between them, and considering that the two countries are already closer to Russia, it could potentially lead to the revival of the RIC troika (Russia, India and China).
What is the RIC troika?
The RIC troika was first conceptualised by former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov in the 1990s, a time when Russia was trying to find its place on the global stage following the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). In the early 2000s, it was institutionalised, and it has held around 20 ministerial-level consultations since then.
The concept of the RIC troika was simple: Russia, India and China should form a triangle, and work together to counter the growing Western hegemony. Initially, both India and China kept their distance from the proposal, especially because of the differences between them. Despite reservations, the foreign ministers of the three countries held a trilateral meeting in September 2003 on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).
What does India feel about RIC troika?
The RIC troika was first conceptualised in the 90s, a time when India opened itself to the globe and was trying to improve ties with the West, particularly the US. Thus, India kept its distance from it. Notably, India conducted the Pokhran-II nuclear test in 1998, a move that was strongly condemned by China, which was another reason why India was never serious about it.
The 2020 Galwan Valley clash also didn't help the troika, as ties between India and China plunged to a new low, and it created more distrust among the two nations. However, with a change in geopolitical situation and the Trump administration imposing tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, New Delhi has showed its willingness to revive the RIC.
"RIC is a consultative format, which is a mechanism where three countries come together to discuss global and regional issues of interest to them," said Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal in July this year.
What does China feel about RIC troika?
Like India, China had also maintained a distance from the RIC troika. However, China is also showing interest in reviving the RIC, potentially because of the recent trade policies of the US under Donald Trump. It must be noted that China has openly come out in support of India after the US imposed 50 per cent tariffs on the latter for procuring Russian oil.
"China-Russia-India cooperation not only serves the respective interests of the three countries but also helps uphold peace, security, stability and progress in the region and the world," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said in July this year.
What is Russia saying about RIC revival?
For long, Russia has looked for the revival of the RIC, and is holding discussions with India and China for this. Earlier this year, Russia said the three countries are important partners, apart from being the founding members of the BRICS.
"I would like to confirm our genuine interest in the earliest resumption of the work within the format of the troika, Russia, India, China, which was established many years ago on the initiative of Yevgeny Primakov and which has organised meetings more than 20 times at the ministerial level… Now that, as I understand, an understanding has been reached between India and China on how to calm the situation on the border, it seems to me that the time has come to revive this RIC troika," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in May.
Can the RIC redraw global order?
Russia, India and China account for USD 53.9 trillion in global GDP (PPP), which is around 33 per cent of the world's total output. The export of the three countries tops USD 5 trillion, with USD 4.7 trillion in foreign reserves, according to a report by The Economic Times.
All of them are also nuclear-powered, and they have always pushed for a multipolar world, opposing unilateralism. Their combined military spending stands at USD 549 billion, and they also consume 35 per cent of the total global energy.
However, experts feel there is still time for the RIC to redraw the global order. Writing for the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), regional expert Aleksei Zakharov said there are still differences between the three nations that have hindered "the consensus required for joint statements".
Zakharov said the RIC countries could "cooperate in various geographies, such as the Arctic, Central Asia, and the Russian Far East", and other sectors as well, but that needs a greater trust between India and China. "All of these factors indicate the low feasibility of resurrecting the RIC," he said.
