Iran has now threatened to block another key global shipping route after the Strait of Hormuz, as Israel's expanding military campaign in Lebanon is increasingly raising concerns about its potential impact on the global economy.
Amid disruptions to oil supplies and shipping through Hormuz, attention is now turning to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, another critical maritime chokepoint that Iran and its regional allies may target.
On Monday, Iranian state-linked media reported that Tehran had suspended indirect talks with the United States over Israel's military operations in Lebanon. Responding to the development, US President Donald Trump said he did not care if the negotiations collapsed.
Trump also announced a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, while Lebanon confirmed a partial truce. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signalled that military operations would continue in southern Lebanon, where Israeli ground forces have advanced toward the Zaharani River in their deepest incursion into the country in 25 years.
Iran has repeatedly insisted that negotiations cannot proceed while Israeli military action continues in Lebanon and Gaza. Netanyahu's determination to press ahead with the offensive suggests the conflict could persist, renewing concerns over the security of key global trade routes, particularly the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Importance of Bab al-Mandeb Strait
Located at the southern entrance of the Red Sea between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is one of the world's most strategically important waterways. At its narrowest point, it measures just 29 kilometres across, yet nearly 15 per cent of global maritime trade passes through it each year.
The strait serves as a vital link between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, providing access to the Suez Canal and connecting major markets in Asia, Europe and Africa.
Oil tankers, container ships and cargo vessels depend heavily on the route for international trade.
Any significant disruption could force vessels to reroute around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of kilometres to journeys, increasing fuel consumption and raising shipping costs. Such disruptions would likely translate into higher prices for energy and imported goods worldwide.
Iran's warning and the Houthi threat
Esmail Qaani, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, linked developments in the region directly to the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza.
Any threat to the strait inevitably brings Yemen's Houthi movement into focus. The Iran-aligned group has previously targeted commercial vessels in the area.
Beginning in late 2023, Houthi forces launched attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb, saying the operations were aimed at supporting Palestinians during the Gaza conflict. The attacks prompted many shipping companies to divert vessels around southern Africa, significantly increasing transportation costs and delivery times.
Industry estimates suggest that disruptions linked to the Red Sea crisis cost the global economy roughly $20 billion annually between 2023 and 2025.
Although the Houthis have not officially commented on the latest reports from Iran, senior Houthi official Mohammed Mansour had earlier indicated that closing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait remained a possibility. In March, he said the move was "a viable option" and warned that the consequences would be borne by the United States and Israel.
As tensions involving Israel, Iran and their regional allies continue to escalate, concerns are growing that the conflict could further disrupt global energy markets and international trade routes. With diplomatic efforts showing little sign of progress, the risk of broader economic repercussions looms large.
