The road to Delhi's 'throne' goes through Uttar Pradesh. Barring a few occasions, party which has won maximum number of Lok Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh has went on to form government at the Centre. In 2014, the 'Modi wave' swept across the state with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning 71 out 80 Lok Sabha seats.
Can the BJP repeat its 2014 super show in 2019 in Uttar Pradesh or Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) of Opposition parties led by the Congress will prove a stumbling bloc? To gauge the mood of the nation, CNX, a Delhi based research and survey agency conducted an Opinion Poll for IndiaTV.
IndiaTV-CNX second Opinion Poll: Shivraj may retain power in MP but Congress not far behind from BJP
Key takeaways of IndiaTV-CNX Opinion Poll Uttar Pradesh:
1) According to the survey, in Scenario 1, if Samajwadi Party, BSP, RLD and Congress combine in UP, they can win in 49 seats, and the NDA's strength could be reduced to only 31.
2) Here's the break-up for Mahagathbandhan: BSP 18, SP 21, Congress 8, RLD 2. Break-up for NDA is BJP 30, Apna Dal 1.
3) In Scenario 2, if Samajwadi Party, BSP and Rashtriya Lok Dal, combine in UP, they can win in 33 seats, leaving two seats to Congress, while the NDA’s strength could be reduced to 45 (BJP 44 and Apna Dal one).
4) The break-up for Mahagathbandhan: BSP 15, SP 16, RLD 2.
5) If the Grand Alliance of non-BJP parties does not materialize in UP, the BJP may win 55 out of total 80 seats, BSP 9, SP 9, Congress 5, RLD one and Apnal Dal one.
6) Vote share in that case could be: BJP 39.19 per cent, BSP 20 per cent, SP 20.55 per cent and Congress 11.91 per cent.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP had won 71, Samajwadi Party five, the Congress and Apna Dal had won two seats each in Uttar Pradesh out of a total of 80 seats.
WATCH: IndiaTV-CNX Opinion Poll - BJP may lose big against Mahagathbandhan