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Q1 GDP to grow 7.1%, rupee to remain under pressure in FY19: Study

The "Ficci Economic Outlook Survey" also said that several economists are of the opinion that the rupee is likely to remain under pressure during the financial year 2018-19. 

Reported by: IANS, New Delhi [ Published on: August 14, 2018 23:27 IST ]
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Image Source : PTI

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India's GDP in the quarter-ended June is likely to record a 7.1 per cent growth on a year-on-year basis, a survey by industry body Ficci showed on Tuesday.

The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) is expected to release the growth numbers for July later this month.

The "Ficci Economic Outlook Survey" also said that several economists are of the opinion that the rupee is likely to remain under pressure during the financial year 2018-19. The rupee has significantly weakened in the last few months and on Tuesday crossed the psychological mark of 70 per dollar. 

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The survey was conducted in July among economists representing industry, banking and the financial services sector, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) said.

"The economists unanimously felt that rupee will continue to be under pressure in 2018-19. It was felt that movement in oil prices and domestic as well as global economic developments will remain the two key swing factors for the rupee," the report said.

Majority of economists believed that the fair value of Indian rupee again the US Dollar would be in the range of 65 to 66."

For FY19, the survey predicted a GDP growth of 7.4 per cent with agriculture and allied activities likely to grow by 3 per cent, industry by 6.9 per cent and the services sector by 8.3 per cent.

"Although there has been some slippage in the monsoons during the months of June and July, updated forecast for August and September indicate a pick-up in rainfall," the report said. 

Further, according to the report, concerns remain on external front with median current account deficit forecast pegged at 2.5 per cent of GDP for 2018-19. 

"Merchandise exports are expected to grow by 9.8 per cent while imports are expected to grow by 14.2 per cent during the year," said the report.

Further, during FY19 the Wholesale Price Index is likely to be around 4.8 per cent, it said.

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