Despite the economy reeling under slow growth, a severe banking crisis and jobs, global brokerage Morgan Stanley is optimistic of India’s future and expects it to be a $6 trillion economy -- the third largest in the world -- in the next 10 years. While identifying India’s political stability, privacy debate over Aadhaar, among others, as crucial to India’s growth, the Morgan Stanley report says that India's digitisation drive would provide a boost of 50-75 basis points to GDP growth in the coming decade.
"We estimate that digitisation will provide a boost of 50-75 basis points to GDP growth and forecast that India will grow to USD 6 trillion economy and achieve upper-middle income status by 2026-27," Morgan Stanley head India research and India equity strategist Ridham Desai told reporters here.
"We expect India's real and nominal GDP growth to compound annually by 7.1 percent and 11.2 percent respectively over the coming decade," he added.
Citing the report 'India's digital leap - The multi-trillion dollar opportunity' released today, Desai said apart from some short-term teething problems including implementation of GST, there is scope for visible shifts in economic activity starting in 2018 which would eventually lead India to be the top five equity markets in the world with a market capitalisation of USD 6.1 trillion and the third-largest listed financial services sector around the globe with a market cap of USD 1.8 trillion by 2027.
India's consumer sectors are also likely to add about $1.5 trillion over the next ten years.
"We project gross FDI inflows amounting to $120 billion by FY'27, almost double the current 12-month trailing run rate of $64 billion," Desai said.
Accordingly, Desai also noted that stock markets are likely to remain robust as a stronger economic growth should drive stronger corporate earnings growth.
Desai also said the country is also likely to witness strong domestic participation in equities.
"We project equity saving of USD 420 billion $525 billion over the next ten years, versus the respective $60 billion and $120 billion that households and foreign portfolios invested over the previous ten years," he said.
While the report exudes confidence that India's growth story is to continue, it also identified certain risks.
These are with respect to political stability, privacy debate over Aadhaar, and implementation of GST, among others.
The report said that while the Supreme Court has made privacy a fundamental right in a recent judgement, private parties will likely continue to question whether Aadhaar violates privacy rights.
"Any adverse judgement in the courts could derail one of the main anchors of our framework," it said.
Further, it noted that GST is expected to disrupt smaller businesses causing job losses and a general slowdown in economic growth, however, it is likely to lead to lower public debt to GDP subsequently.