Why Narendra Modi is the only hope for BJP in 2014

New Delhi, Dec 26: The emphatic win of BJP in Gujarat assembly elections has not only underlined Narendra Modi's supremacy in Gujarat but has also given the party a ray of hope for 2014 general elections.Modi's critics may quibble over BJP getting 2 seats less compared to 2007 but the truth is that Modi's victory in 2012 is far more impressive than 2007. Why because Keshubhai Patel was not openly in the battle ground against Modi in 2007. This time, Keshubhai Patel's rigorous campaigning has cost Modi dearly across the state, especially in Saurashtra and Kutch regions. In Saurashtra and Kutch, BJP had won 43 seats in 2012 but they could manage to win 35 seats only this time. And it was Keshubhai factor that succeeded in upsetting Modi's applecart in these regions. Had Keshubhai's GPP not been in the fray, Modi was all set to consolidate his position in the state and crossing the two-thirds mark would have been a cakewalk for him. Despite the fact that Keshubhai managed to make inroads into powerful Leuva Patel community who constitute around 20 percent of the electorate, Modi has successfully made a comeback with a convincing and thumping majority. That's why Modi's victory in 2012 is more impressive compared to 2007 despite BJP getting 2 seats less.A closer analysis of voting pattern reveals that people of Gujarat have voted for Modi cutting across barriers of caste, creed and religion. Even the Muslim community seems to have changed its perception as is evident from massive victory of BJP candidates in some of Muslim dominated constituencies. While Keshubhai Patel has definitely succeeded in influencing the voting preferences of his community, a majority of Leuva Patels refused to change their horse and stuck to Narendra Modi in these elections.Why it that people of Gujarat is have been reposing their faith in Narendra Damodardas Modi for last three elections despite all the negative propaganda of Modi's adversaries? The Congress campaign was completely clueless over how to stop Modi's juggernaut. The party had tried everything in the past including acerbic attacks like the infamous ‘merchant of death' remark by Sonia Gandhi but to no avail. The party tried to check Modi's forward march through the Governor as well but nothing really worked out. The fear of defeat was so immense in the Congress leadership that they decided not to take the risk of projecting Rahul Gandhi as the chief campaigner in these elections given the threat of certain defeat looming large in their minds. The reason behind Narendra Modi's consecutive election victories is the fact that he has come across as a no-nonsense leader who means business. His decisiveness and firm approach towards governance has won him laurels across the political spectrum. Congressmen may not accept it publically but they all accept it privately that Modi has proved his mettle efficiently. The corporate leadership of India has welcomed Narendra Modi with open arms and it's not for nothing. Gujarat under Modi's leadership has become a role model for rest of the country as far as industrial development is concerned. Many states of India today are increasingly facing problems in allocating lands to the corporate houses but Modi has handled everything with sheer efficiency. Agitations of Singur and Nandigram resulted in dethroning of Left front government in West Bengal but the scenario is entirely different in Gujarat. Despite accelerated decision making in land allocation matters, Congress has failed to point out even a single case of malpractice. The performance of Gujarat government on other social parameters is equally impressive. The bogey of communalism has also failed to convince the electorates in Gujarat as even Muslims of the state are willing to look at Modi as someone who is working for the entire Gujarati populace. This has happened because the benefits of development have trickled down to each and every strata of the society irrespective of caste and religion.Now the bigger question is – can Modi effect a similar turnaround at national level if given a chance for the same? The answer is not easy given the complexity involved in ruling a behemoth like India. Even Narendra Modi will think ten times before promising quick turnaround at national level. But the people of India today are looking for a decisive leader at the helm of affairs and Narendra Modi definitely fits the bill. An average Indian may not agree with the political ideology of Narendra Modi but he would definitely agree that Modi's decision making abilities and acumen are unmatched and unparallel if looked at in comparison with other leadership materials including the Congress scion Rahul Gandhi who rarely speaks these days.But the real story is that it's the BJP that is more confused over whether to project Modi as PM candidate in 2014 or not. The hesitance of BJP arises from the realization within the party that the allies like Nitish Kumar may not play the ball if Modi is declared PM candidate given the compulsion of Muslim vote-bank politics in different parts of the country. The fear can't be entirely unfounded but what are the options before the BJP? Do they have any other leader among their ranks who has got national following and appeal. Arun Jaitely and Sushma Swaraj have every quality – they are good orators with a good parliamentary record but their Achilles hill is the lack of mass following. They are not mass leaders and even they are fully aware of it. That is the reason why both Arun Jaitely and Sushma have publically said that Modi can be the buzz word for the party in 2014 elections. Arun Jaitely's preference was never in doubt but it was public statement of Sushma Swaraj that gave an insight into what is actually being discussed in the BJP. The RSS chief has already given his approval over Modi's name. Then why this hesitance and ambiguity on BJP's part? Modi's biggest advantage is that he comes from OBC community although he has never played this card as his RSS background stops him from focusing on caste politics but every opponent of Modi is well aware of this fact. OBC leaders like Nitish Kumar are not against Modi simply because of the fear of losing minority votes. They fully realize that if Modi is given the opportunity of expanding his influence on national , he may emerge as national version of former UP Chief minister Kalyan Singh. Kalyan Singh, an OBC leader, had successfully crafted an unbeatable social engineering formula in UP that catapulted the BJP into the corridors of power in the state. It was an unbeatable combination of backward leader with full support of forward caste electorates and it worked wonders for the party in UP.More than caste arithmetic, it's the iron-man image of Narendra Modi that can give a huge advantage to the BJP in 2014 if Modi is handed over the mantle to take on Rahul Gandhi. A nation plagued by terrorism, corruption, mass unemployment, poverty, complete absence of basic social infrastructure is desperately looking for a leader who can be decisive and who is not afraid of taking risks. As far as the BJP is concerned, it's only Modi who has got the charisma that runs across the nation . He is the only regional leader who has got national following. The BJP has no other option than to fully encash it if it has to challenge Rahul Gandhi successfully in 2014.Allies are important in any coalition government and it's also a fact that India will get coalition governments only for some more years until the stage is fully set for two-party politics that will be a big challenge given the heterogeneous nature of Indian polity.But the party playing the role of pivot in the coalition has to be strong enough to inspire confidence in the electorate. Once Nitish Kumar realizes that Modi's magic will result in addition and not subtraction of votes then his opposition will also lose its edge. Anyways, he is facing backlash in his home state and has been silent over Modi's prospects as PM candidate in 2014.It's high time for the BJP to fasten its belt for the epic battle in 2014. The tragedy of BJP is that it has virtually no presence in some othe major states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. In Hindi heartland, the party has been reduced to the status of also-run in the biggest state of UP. If the party has to win back the constituency that it lost to parties like SP and BSP then the only answer in sight is Narendra Modi who can unite every section under the philosophy that is now being increasingly and repeatedly referred to as ‘Moditva' . If the party has to make inroads in tougher states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Karnataka then once again the answer is the leadership of Narendra Modi. If the party has to convince the allies over its emergence as the single largest party in case of a fractured verdict then again the only answer in sight is Modi.In a heterogeneous country like India, political model of one state may not succeed in another state but when the urge of the electorate remains the same – roads, electricity, water, employment- then it's a risk worth taking. The Sooner the party understands it, the better for its prospects.