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India TV Releases Post-Election Picture In Massive Pre-Election Survey

UPA, NDA To Fall Short; Key Lies With Third And Fourth Front, India TV Releases Post-Election Picture In Massive Pre-Election Survey

New Delhi, Delhi, India, April 5, 2009

Main Points: 

Prima facie NDA (187) has minor edge over UPA (178); if UPA is minus SP (30), RJD/LJP (15) 

On their own, BJP (144) is marginally ahead of Congress (133) 

If after elections, SP (30), RJD/ LJP (15), PRP (6), PDP (1), Others (5) back UPA, UPA+ will have 57 more seats (235) 

In other words, Fourth Front comprising SP, RJD/LJP, PRP, and PDP have 52 seats 

Third Front (121) holds the key with BSP (26), TDP/TRS (14), Left (35), JDS (4), BJD (10), AIADMK 31, HJC 1)

As for the single-largest party in states, Cong (22) ahead in Andhra, JD (U) in Bihar, BJP (18) in Gujarat, Cong (7) in Haryana, Cong-BJP tie in Himachal, NC (3) in J&K, BJP (20) in MP, BJP (13) in Maharashtra with both Shiv Sena and NCP having 12 each, Cong (6) in Punjab but BJP+SAD having 7, Cong 13 in Rajasthan, Left (25) in West Bengal, SP (30) in UP, BJP (9) in Chattisgarh, AIADMK (30) in Tamil Nadu, BJP (17) in Karnataka, Cong (5) in Delhi, BJP (6) in Assam, BJP (8) in Jharkhand, UDF (12) in Kerala, BJP (10) in Orissa, Cong (7) in N-E 

Loss for DMK (7), BSP (26) 

Rajat Sharma’s India TV has declared the results of a massive and first-ever pre-election survey conducted exclusively by reporters. NDA (187) has a minor edge over UPA (178) and the BJP (144) may win more seats than the Congress (133). But if UPA can bring back its former constituents, SP (30) and RJD/LJP (15) and some others it will reach 235, the survey said. 

On its part, the BJP (144) may be able to add 43 more seats from existing allies constituents taking the tally of NDA to 187. So, if the Fourth Front gets back to UPA, the key therefore would still lie with the Third Front constituents at 121. The UPA may then need 37 of them to break away to reach the magical mark of 272. If, on the other hand, some constituents of the Third Front minus Left (120 minus 35) join with NDA (187), the NDA may still need break-away groups from the Fourth Front. 

The survey covering the entire country and 50,000 respondents has thrown up the first authentic estimates of what the situation will be like on May 16, 2009, when final results of the Lok Sabha are declared. "More than 200 experienced reporters fanned across demographies, castes, religion, and seats to emerge with this comprehensive and nuanced picture on the mood in the Nation," India TV Chairman and Editor-in-Chief Rajat Sharma said. "This is also the first time that a survey has been done on-camera." 

"In our commitment to give outstanding and most credible and politically astute input to the Nation, a follow-up survey reflecting the swift-changing developments will be unveiled later this month," Mr Sharma said. 

Note for Editors: 

State wise tally 

-- A P (42)-- TDP/TRS 14-- Cong 22--PRP 06

-- Bihar (40)-- BJP 08--JD(U)18--RJD/LJP 14

-- Gujarat (26)-- BJP 18--Cong 08

-- Haryana (10)-- BJP 01--Cong 07--INLD 01--HJC 01

-- Himachal (4)-- BJP 02-- Cong 02

-- J & K (6)-- BJP 01-- Cong 01-- NC 03-- PDP 01

-- M P (29)-- BJP 20--Cong 09

-- Maharashtra (48)-- BJP 13-- Cong 11-- SS 12-- NCP 12

-- Punjab (13)-- BJP 03-- Cong 06-- SAD 04

-- Rajasthan (25)-- BJP 12-- Cong 13

-- West Bengal (42)-- TMC 11-- Cong 06-- Left 25

-- U P (80)-- BJP 15-- Cong 06-- SP 30-- BSP 26-- RLD 03

-- Chattisgarh (11)-- BJP 09-- Cong 02

-- Tamil Nadu (39)-- AIDMK 30-- Cong 02-- DMK 07

-- Karnataka (28)-- BJP 17-- Cong 07-- JD (S) 04

-- Uttarakhand (5)-- BJP 03-- Cong 02

-- Delhi (7)-- BJP 02-- Cong 05

-- Assam (14)-- BJP 06-- Cong 04-- AGP 04

-- Jharkhand (14)-- BJP 08-- Cong 01-- JMM 02-- JDU 01-- Oth 01-- RJD 01

-- Kerala (20)-- Left 08-- UDF 12

-- Orissa (21)-- BJP 03-- Cong 08-- BJD 10

-- North East (19)-- BJP 03-- Cong 07-- NCP 02-- Left 02-- AIADNK 01-- Oth 04 

NDA 144 + 43 = 187
BJP 144
BJP+ 43 (JDU 19+SS 12+SAD 4+RLD 3+AGP 4+INLD 1) 

UPA 133 + 45 = 178
Cong 133
Cong+ 45 (NC 3 +NCP 14+TMC 11+DMK 7+UDF 08+ JMM 02) 

Third Front = 121
(BSP 26+TDP/TRS 14 +Left 35+ JDS 04+BJD 10+AIDMK 31 + HJC = 01)

Fourth Front 52 + 5 = 57
SP = 30
RJD/LJP = 15
PRP = 06
PDP = 01
Others = 5 

India TV is the No.1 news channel in the country. The channel deployed over 200 reporters who conducted 50,000 interviews for this pre-election survey. The data mining was conducted by an independent third party. The show was aired on Sunday, April 5, 2009 between 8 pm and 10 pm. 

rohitbansal@indiatvnews.com