The Supreme Court of India has asked Delhi’s Lt Governor Najeeb Jung to take a final call on the fate of Delhi assembly within five weeks.
The court has asked Jung either to explore the possibility of government formation or dissolve the assembly so that fresh elections could be held in the national capital. The SC gave these instructions while hearing a petition filed by AAP for holding fresh elections in Delhi.
Can Delhi have a government if the present assembly is to be revived? Which party can form the government and will that be a stable government even if a govt is formed? These questions can’t be answered easily under present circumstances.
The numbers in Delhi assembly suggest that government formation is not an easy task for anybody. BJP alliance had won 32 seats but presently it’s number is down to 28 as three of its members- Dr Harsh Vardhan, Ramesh Bidhuri and Parvesh Verma – have been elected to 16th Lok Sabha.
AAP had won 28 seats but now it has 27 members only because Lakshmi Nagar MLA Vinod Kumar Binny is no longer with the party. The Congress has got 8 MLAs in the house.
Can the BJP form the government? Satish Upadhyay, Delhi BJP chief, in an interview to India TV Digital had recently said that his party is ready to explore all options. But are the numbers adding up? The answer is NO.
The only way BJP can form a government is to create splits in either AAP or Congress. Since a majority of elected MLAs are not in favour of dissolving the assembly given the uncertainty over their re-election, splits can’t be ruled out completely irrespective of what these leaders publically say. This is something that even Satish Upadhyay admitted in his interview to India TV Digital.
But is the BJP ready for going so far because if it happens, the party can’t escape from the charges of horse trading. And there is an interesting intra-party tussle going on within BJP. If party sources are to be believed then the Delhi BJP leaders and MLAs are in favour of government formation because of two reasons.
One, they are desperate to get back into power because they have been out of power in Delhi for 15 long years.
Second, the elected MLAs are pressing for government formation because they are not confident of getting elected if elections are to be held today as they are aware of growing public discontent over unbridled price rise and acute power shortage.
Therefore, they won’t mind government formation either by hook or by crook.
The central leadership of the BJP, however, is not in favour of government formation using unethical means, according to sources. Even the RSS is reported to have conveyed its reservation on government formation in Delhi because there is every possibility of the party image taking a hit if the BJP forms government with splinter groups from either Congress or BJP. Any such move is also bound to demolish all claims of morality that Narendra Modi had made during 2014 LS campaign.
RSS and central leadership of BJP will not take such a big risk just to have a government in a small state like Delhi. Narendra Modi himself is planning a long innings in Delhi and he is well aware of the stigma that will stick to his image if BJP forms a govt in Delhi through defections.
The central BJP leadership is reportedly in favour of ordering elections in Delji in January-February. The party’s calculation is that price-rise will be controlled by that time and even power situation will improve as power demand is bound to dip during winter.
As far as AAP is concerned, they know that they are no longer in a position to form government in Delhi again. They had tried to explore the option of govt formation once again with the help of Congress but the grand old party’s refusal left them disappointed. Then reports surfaced in media of AAP allegedly trying to split Congress legislature party as claimed by one of its MLAs. That MLA had also released a tape to substantiate his claims. AAP would love to form the government again because it wants to correct the mistake that Arvind kejriwal had committed by resigning from CM post within 49 days but they can’t do it again unless the Congress extends the support.
The Congress, however, is no longer interested in extending support because the party has realized that AAP ultimately is damaging the electoral prospects of the grand old party. Kejriwal has gained immense popularity among minorities especially Muslims of Delhi and the Congress considers it a threat for itself. Therefore, the Congress is not willing to offer any support to AAP in Delhi.
The Congress on its own has just 8 members so there is no question of the party even thinking of leading a government in Delhi unless a desperate AAP extends support to them as a last resort to stop BJP from forming a government in Delhi but this is highly unlikely.
Where does it leave us? The Supreme Court is right in pointing out that legislators are getting salary from taxpayer’s money without doing any work and it can’t be allowed. The legislators have also been allotted MLA funds for work in their respective constituencies but even they point out that they are not able to get any work done as there is no government in place and bureaucrats are not listening to them.
The absence of elected government definitely puts Delhites on disadvantage and the Supreme Court’s order is a right step in the right direction. But the arithmetic of Delhi assembly is such that government formation looks like a remote possibility.
As on today, fresh elections look the only option to break the logjam and this is something every political leader agrees with, privately if not publically.
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